Rising prices
Hogan's remarks come at a time when many Americans are feeling the pinch of rising costs.
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, the average yearly inflation rate was around 1.9% during Trump’s presidency.
In contrast, the inflation rate has been significantly higher during Biden's presidency, with an average yearly rate of 5.6% from 2021 to 2023. The inflation rate peaked at 9.1% year-over-year in June 2022, the highest in over 40 years. This spike in inflation was influenced by several factors, including the economic recovery from the pandemic and global supply chain disruptions exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has implemented significant interest rate hikes since March 2022 to tame rampant inflation. And according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline inflation rate has subsided, with the U.S. consumer price index showing a 0.1 decline in June from May. This brings the 12-month increase to 3.0%.
While the rate of increase has moderated, the prices of many necessities remain elevated. For instance, the food index from the CPI has increased by 21% since January 2021. Similarly, the shelter index has risen by 22% during the same period.
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Factors such as the pandemic also impacted other indicators of the U.S. economy.
For instance, the unemployment rate during Trump's presidency averaged around 4% in his first three years. It reached a historic low of 3.5% in February 2020, right before the pandemic caused it to spike to 14.8% by April 2020.
Biden inherited an economy still recovering from the pandemic with an unemployment rate of 6.4% in January 2021. Under his administration, the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% by January 2023, marking the lowest rate since 1969. This rate has since risen, reaching 4.1% as of June 2024.
It’s a similar story on the GDP front. Under Trump, the U.S. economy expanded by approximately 2.6% annually in his first three years. However, in 2020, the economy contracted by 2.2% due to the pandemic.
Under Biden, GDP growth has been notable despite initial concerns about a potential recession due to high inflation and rising interest rates. In 2021, the GDP grew by 5.8%, driven by a strong recovery from the pandemic downturn. In 2022, the GDP growth rate was 1.9%, and in 2023 it continued at a rate of 2.5%.
According to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. GDP increased at an annual pace of 1.4% in Q1 of 2024.
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