What’s going on with Social Security?
Without any sort of intervention, Social Security will have a funding shortfall as early as 2033, according to the 2024 trustees report. At that point, the revenue coming in to support Social Security would cover only 79% of scheduled benefits (revenue comes from worker and employer contributions, as well as income tax on benefits and interest on trust fund reserves). A shortfall would mean an across-the-board reduction in benefits.
Then there’s the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a task force aimed at curbing government waste helmed by billionaire Elon Musk. DOGE is tasked with cutting $2 trillion from the budget, though Newsweek reported that Musk has since backtracked on that, saying it’s the “best-case outcome” rather than a firm target.
He thinks DOGE has a “good shot” at cutting at least half that amount, which is still $1 trillion.
So far, DOGE has dismantled the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and shuttered the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).
The Medicaid reimbursement portals in all 50 states were also briefly down in late January, after a pause on grants, loans and other financial assistance programs. Many workers, advocates and lawmakers are worried the Social Security Administration (SSA) could be in DOGE’s sights.
In 2024, 21% of the federal budget — that’s equivalent to $1.5 trillion — was spent on Social Security, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. That includes providing monthly benefits to retired workers, surviving children and spouses as well as disabled workers and their dependents.
While Trump repeatedly promised during his campaign that he wouldn’t touch Social Security benefits, experts suggest it would be difficult for DOGE to cut $2 trillion (or even $1 trillion) from the budget without impacting Social Security.
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Learn MorePotential solutions to reduce the funding gap
So what do Americans want instead? The NASI survey found that more than four in five (82%) of respondents would prefer a bipartisan roadmap that includes a “package” of changes to make up for the funding shortfall and improve the program.
For example, improvements they’d like to see include a caregiving credit and bridge benefit for older workers with jobs that take a toll on their physical well-being.
This preferred “package,” according to NASI, would also include:
- Eliminating a payroll tax cap for earnings above $400,000 (the most popular of all policy options)
- Gradually raising the payroll tax rate from 6.2% to 7.2% for employers and employees (also a highly popular option)
- Reducing benefits for beneficiaries with higher incomes in retirement
According to NASI, close to four generations of Americans — making up 98% of the current U.S. population — “have never lived without Social Security as a bedrock of economic security.” And for more than nine decades, the program hasn’t missed a payment.
“Rather than see the gap closed by reducing benefits, Americans want to see Social Security secured through revenue increases,” NASI said in its report. “And they are willing to pay more to strengthen the program’s finances.”
These are some of the measures that, NASI says, would eliminate the budget shortfall without having to raise the retirement age. But the unknown factor here is what DOGE intends to do with the SSA.
After all, it could be hard to avoid cuts to Social Security to meet that $2 trillion goal. So it’s not surprising that many Americans remain worried about their Social Security benefits.
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